Nigeria: Biafra separatist activities likely to persist in southeastern states and Abuja through at least late June /update 14

28 DEC 2023 | 10:37 AM UTC

Nigeria: Biafra separatist activities likely to persist in southeastern states and Abuja through at least late June /update 14

Biafra separatist activities likely to persist in the southeastern states and Abuja, Nigeria, through at least late June/update 14

Biafra separatist activities, including protests, work stoppages, and low-level armed attacks, will likely persist in the southeast through at least late June. On Dec. 15, the Supreme Court of Abuja overturned a previous judgment dropping terrorism charges against Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader Nnamdi Kanu and ordering his release. Kanu remains in custody in Abuja.

Protests supporting Kanu are frequent in southeastern states, particularly during Kanu's court appearances. IPOB activists may carry out protests and related actions such as strikes (also called stay-at-home or lockdown actions), notably in the southeastern states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo, and particularly on Mondays (a common strike day) or during Kanu's hearings. In recent months, there have been reports of emerging rival factions within IPOB and conflicting strike orders. Attacks and intimidation against those seen as not adhering to any IPOB strike calls are possible.

In addition, security officials often attribute acts of violence targeting civilians or security forces to IPOB militants or its armed wing, known as the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Suspected IPOB/ESN militants killed at least five police officers during an ambush in Ehime Mbano, Imo State, on Sept. 18.

Security forces will likely deploy to monitor protests or related actions. Protests or stay-at-home actions will probably affect business and transport operations. If demonstrations do occur, clashes with security forces are likely. Officials will almost certainly increase security and prohibit vehicle and pedestrian movement in parts of the Three Arms Zone where the Federal High Court and the Supreme Court are located during the next hearing. During previous hearings, tensions arose in the court's vicinity as security forces allegedly barred Kanu's legal representatives from access to the courtroom. Security operations against separatists in the southeast could lead to localized transport disruptions. Security forces may establish roadblocks and checkpoints. Further armed attacks targeting security forces are possible.

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